Blueshift analysis reveals surge in satellite space debris risk, emphasizes importance of TPS 

Advanced thermal protection systems (TPS) company Blueshift (Spencer, Mass., U.S.) has uncovered a heightened risk of collision from falling space debris as a result of a decade-long growth in satellite launches, which has intensified the demand for improved safety, reduced weight and enhanced resilience in rocket and satellite design.

Analyzing global space debris trends within orbital surveillance records from the U.S. Department of Defense, specifically surging payload data over the last decade, Blueshift has identified a correlation with increased payloads to the latest debris data. Current data states that more than 32,000 trackable pieces of debris larger than 10 centimeters is circulating in low Earth orbit (LEO). Combined with an estimated 30-40% increase in payload launches in just the last 3 years and a 900% increase from the U.S. alone in the last decade, issue has only been exacerbated.

Blueshift’s AeroZero material line has been engineered specifically to address these challenges. Providing robust thermal protection across extreme temperature ranges from −200°C to +2400°C, AeroZero — applicable to various surfaces, including carbon fiber composites — minimizes temperature gradients and insulates sensitive electronics from rapid orbital transitions. In vacuum, AeroZero has been found to significantly slow conductive heat transfer, resulting in a ~40°C reduction in composite temperatures compared to conventional polyimide tapes. The material also features 19 times lower thermal conductivity and six times lower thermal diffusivity, delivering markedly improved thermal stability for spacecraft systems. These benefits reduce thermal fatigue, protect critical electronics near solar arrays and extend component lifespan — all essential factors in lowering the risk of fragmentation and reducing overall debris generation.

With more than 15,000 satellites launched since 1957, and 10,000 of which are still active, the number of space debris larger than 10 centimers in orbit is at an all-time high. NASA and the ESA also estimate a further 131 million smaller, untracked fragments circulating in LEO. This poses significant threats, with rising debris comes an increase in the risk of collisions and Kessler Syndrome — a chain reaction where debris collisions generate further fragments, which can further culminate in debris falling back into orbit, or even in certain circumstances, making its way back to Earth.

“The data makes clear that space sustainability is no longer optional,” says Tim Burbey, president of Blueshift. “As launch activity grows, so does the risk of collision. Our materials directly support safer spacecraft by reducing mass, minimizing thermal stress and improving resilience under the extreme conditions of launch, orbit and re-entry.”