Carbon fiber's future: Supply and demand

Chris Red, of Composites Forecasts and Consulting LLC, speaking on Nov. 9 at CompositesWorld's annual Carbon Fiber conference in Scottsdale, Arizona. Chris sees the automotive and pressure vessel markets driving substantial carbon fiber composites use over th next decade.

CompositesWorld's annual Carbon Fiber conference kicked off yesterday, Nov. 9, in Scottsdale, Arizona, with a pre-conference seminar presented by Chris Red of Composiites Forecasts and Consulting LLC, on the global outlook for carbon fibers and carbon fiber composites. As usual, Chris included his assessment of carbon fiber supply and demand, through 2025. 

Let's jump right to the numbers. First, in terms consumption by volume, the vast majority (75%) of carbon fiber is used by the industrial market, which includes automotive, pressure vessels and wind energy. The rest goes to the aerospace market (14%) and the consumer market (11%). 

The biggest drivers of carbon fiber use over the next decade, says Chris, will be automotive, pressure vessels, wind energy, non-wind energy, commercial aerospace structures and aerospace interiors. His outlook for those markets is here:

End market carbon fiber consumption, metric tons

Globally, this is how Chris sees total carbon fiber demand adding up over the next decade. Note that in five years, Chris expects the industrial market will be using more carbon fiber (141,800 metric tons) than the entire world consumes today (101,600 metric tons).

Global carbon fiber demand summary, metric tons

On the supply side, Chris says to expect increase in global carbon fiber manufacturing capacity in the 2020-2024 timeframe of 100,000 metric tons to meet the surge in demand. His carbon fiber output estimates look like this:

Estimated darbon fiber nameplate capacity vs. actual output, metric tons

Look for a more complete report on Chris' data and the rest of the Carbon Fiber conference in the CompositesWorld Blog and in the magazine.