SpeedNews Conference report
By Donna K. Dawson, Senior Writer | March 24, 2008
The 22nd annual Commercial Aviation Industry Suppliers’ Conference, sponsored by SpeedNews (Los Angeles, Calif.), was held March 17-19, 2008, in Beverly Hills, Calif. The list of 306 attendees included ATK Aerospace Structures, Click Bond, DuPont Fluoropolymer Solutions, M.C. Gill Corp., Recaro Aircraft Seating and Spirit Aerosystems, among other composite suppliers. Airbus and Boeing were upbeat in projecting increasing demand by the flying public that warrants increasing production to meet backlogs for passenger jets. Airbus reports that at year-end 2007, world air traffic increased 36 percent since the World Trade Center attack on Sept. 11, 2001 and from ~0.6 in 1972 to 4.5 trillion in revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs). At the same YE ‘07 mark, the total passenger jet backlog stood at 41 percent of the active passenger fleet, according to Ian Gurekian, VP product evaluation & strategy for GE Commercial Aviation Services (GECAS, Stamford, CT).
Airbus remains committed to its vision of very large aircraft and Boeing sees single and double-aisle as the future of commercial carriers. Both are making extensive use of composites in their designs.
A trend toward greater passenger comfort and greener environmental performance and the state of the U.S. and global economy—as expressed in aircraft financing opportunities—set the tone of the conference. Stephen Rimmer, CEO of Guggenheim Aviation Partners (Sammamish, Wash.) discussed the difficulties in continuing to finance order backlogs in our current wavering economy, especially in funding progress payments, since the aircraft is not a tangible asset until it is off the assembly line. In a more negative view, Adam Pilarski, Sr. VP of Avitas (Chantilly, Va.), judges that “recession will happen,” because of a “loose monetary policy leading to credit problems,” plus a war economy in the U.S. not balanced by a cut in consumption. He states, “We are in a bubble environment,” with too many planes ordered because of double counting; he believes everyone is ordering for the same demand, and expects sizeable cancellations as a result.
The price of oil was on everyone’s mind, of course, and the composite advantage was cited as a strong green (environmental and financial) factor. Composites’ lighter weight is credited with increasing range and reducing fuel burn; these and lower maintenance costs were among other advantages named. Heidi Wood of Morgan Stanley (New York, N.Y.) pointed out that the “world didn’t stop when the U.S. economy clutched.” She says air travel is tied to global GDP, and while developed economies are slowing, emerging economies are growing — especially in the very large market of Asia, Australia and the Middle East, where 45 percent of the world’s population lives in an area that is 70 percent ocean. Airbus VP, market forecasts & research, Laurent Rouaud, projects that 12 percent of the top airports in the world will be in Asia by 2026.
Wood also predicted a decline in composites price per pound and noted “cheaper innovations are likelier with time,” adding that “composites are clearly considered a major factor in manufacturing and economics.”
Kevin Michaels, principal of Aerostrategy management consultants (Ann Arbor, Mich.) says composite materials account for about five to 10 percent of the market today, and expects that to quadruple over the next 20 years, mostly in carbon applications. He notes that the cost of raw materials, in general, has gone up from 40 to 50 percent of the total aircraft today. In answer to questions from the floor, he stated that he does not see composite patented technology as a barrier to entry in aircraft designs and noted that material shortages have ebbed, and processing delays are more of a consideration now.
Gary Scott, president, aircraft services and new commercial aircraft programs for Bombardier Aerospace (Montreal, Quebec, Canada) said its “lean, clean, green flying machine,” the C-series 110/130 single-aisle regional aircraft, was scheduled to launch in 2008, and start delivery in 2013. The C-series is 70 percent advanced materials: 60 percent composites in engine nacelles and all control surfaces (wings, empennage and rear fuselage); and 10 percent aluminum lithium (Al-Li) in the remainder of the fuselage. Pratt & Whitney’s new geared Turbofan engine will provide the power.
