The Boeing Co. (Chicago, Illinois) and Airbus (Toulouse, France) on July 11 at the Farnborough International Airshow issued forecasts for global commercial aircraft demand for the next 20 years. Boeing projects a demand for 39,620 new airplanes over the next 20 years, an increase of 4.1% over last year's forecast. Boeing's annual Current Market Outlook (CMO) estimates the total value of those new airplanes at US$5.9 trillion. Airbus’ Global Market Forecast predicts passenger traffic will grow at an average 4.5% a year, driving a need for more than 33,000 new aircraft above 100 seats worth US$5.2 trillion. Airbus says that by 2035, the world’s aircraft fleet will have doubled from today’s 19,500 aircraft to almost 40,000. Some 13,000 passenger and freighter aircraft will be replaced with more fuel efficient types.
Boeing, in a statement, says, the single-aisle market will be especially strong, with low-cost carriers and emerging markets driving growth. 28,140 new airplanes will be needed in this segment, an increase of more than 5% over last year. On the widebody side, 9,100 airplanes are in the forecast, with a large wave of potential replacement demand in the 2021- 2028 time frame. Boeing projects a continued shift from very large airplanes to small and medium widebodies such as the 787, 777 and 777X. With cargo traffic forecasted to grow at 4.2 percent per year, Boeing projects the need for 930 new freighters and 1,440 converted freighters.
In the widebody market, Airbus forecasts a trend towards higher capacity aircraft and forecasts a requirement for more than 9,500 widebody passenger and freighter aircraft over the next 20 years, valued at some US$2.8 trillion. This represents 29% of all new aircraft deliveries and 54% by value. Most widebody deliveries (46%) will be in the Asia-Pacific region. In the single aisle market, Airbus forecasts a need for more than 23,500 new aircraft worth US$2.4 trillion. This represents 71% of all new units. Asia Pacific will take 39% of these deliveries.
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