Carbon Fiber 2007 Archive

Carbon Fiber 2007 was a huge success. 140 participants from 91 companies attended the conference in Washington DC and heard 24 presentations from leading industry experts.

Here's what the attendees had to say about the event:

"The variety of topics provided for a unique overview of market opportunities, application & material development and process innovation." Growth Manager, PPG Industries

"Very well done!" Materials Engineer, Boeing

Please see the agenda for more information.

2007 Brochures (PDFs)

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• Agenda
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2007 Sponsors

Objective

This international conference brings together carbon fiber manufacturers with composite industry executives and technologists to explore expanding the role of carbon fiber in the composites industry. Attendees will receive a complete briefing on the outlook for growth, supply, and demand of carbon fibers, including market trends by region and sector, new technologies, emerging applications, and challenges that lie ahead for the carbon fiber composite market. This meeting provides an objective, comprehensive forum to discuss new developments for carbon fibers in emerging industrial markets, such as wind energy, marine, and construction, as well as in traditional markets, such as aerospace and sporting goods. Discussions will focus on methods to streamline manufacturing costs in both industrial and aerospace applications and the outlook for consumption in markets with significant potential for growth.

The following sessions are planned:

I. Market Assessment and Forecast

• Regional outlook (Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America)
• Growth, supply, demand, pricing of PAN-based fiber and new developments in pitch-based fiber
• Chopped carbon fiber markets
• Large tow versus small tow markets
• Competition with light metals

II. New Developments in Critical Markets and End Uses

• Commercial aviation, defense and aerospace applications
• Sporting goods (golf clubs, tennis rackets, bicycles, skis, snowboards, archery, hockey sticks, etc.)
• Electronics EMI & RFI shielding (computers, printers, copiers, etc.)
• Infrastructure/Construction: bridges, marine, other construction applications (rebar, cable)

III. Production Methods, Fiber Placement and Consolidation Techniques to Reduce Costs

• Issues impacting carbon fiber composite market entry (fiber cost, industry marketing initiatives, low cost composite manufacturing methods)
• Resin transfer molding (RTM) and resin infusion molding (SCRIMP) and thermoplastic prepregs
• Hybrid fabrics and preforms
• 3D weaving, stitch-bonded fabrics

IV. Outlook for Carbon Fiber in Industrial Applications

• Wind energy Oilfield composite technology; offshore oil platforms and deepwater exploration
• Automotive applications (body components, drive shafts, frames, steering columns, friction applications, etc.)
• Other transportation (shipping, rail, trucks, buses)
• Composite rollers
• Energy and energy storage (CNG, LNG, and hydrogen storage; flywheels, and composite electric cable)
• Carbon nanotubes (displays, conductive materials...)

Market Challenges

Capacity is beginning to catch up with demand for carbon fiber. All of the fiber suppliers have announced they are installing new production capacity and restarting mothballed lines. Most recently, Toray announced in early February that it will spend US$451.7 million over the next two years to increase its global production capacity to 17,900 metric tonnes. Following this, Cytec announced an additional US$150 million investment through 2010. Zoltek is in the process of nearly doubling capacity and SGL recently announced a new partnership to secure precursor. New suppliers are also announcing that they plan on entering the market. Aerospace markets have led recent demand and are expected to grow at a 19% CAGR through 2010. However, industrial applications are taking off, too, with a total combined CAGR of 14% through the end of the decade. Sporting goods CAGR is estimated at 5% over the same time period, resulting in a total overall projected growth rate of a robust 13%. With all these announcements, it appears suppliers now have bet the bank that the seesaw nature of the carbon fiber market is now. Wind energy could become the second largest market sector after aerospace by 2010. What happens if another one of the industrial markets, like risers for offshore oil or serial automobile production really explodes? Can fiber suppliers respond in a timely fashion or will this exacerbate shortages for some grades of fiber? What influence will new carbon fiber production and fabric manufacturing technology have on meeting demand in either sector? How will carbon nanotubes influence the market of the future?

Overview

Global

consumption of PAN carbon fibers was estimated at over 27,000 tonnes for 2006. Global nameplate capacity was estimated to be around 32,000 tonnes. Actual capacity is a number steadily rising towards 30,000 tonnes as large-tow lines have been reactivated and new small-tow production is coming on-line. Pitch-based carbon fiber consumption is centered primarily in Asia, where in Japan demand is around 1000 tonnes for high-performance pitch fiber. Global demand for carbon fiber is predicted by some analysts to increase to around 50,000 tonnes by 2010. Much of the growth is predicted to be in the industrial segment, which currently accounts for around 60% of the current demand. Vestas has announced a new wind blade manufacturing facility in Colorado. The jumbo Airbus A380 has made several test flights, including two to US airports, after several production setbacks. Meanwhile, Boeing's 787 appears to be on schedule for its 2008 launch. A recent announcement reported that the Dreamliner's parts suppliers are on time, composites components have exceeded all performance expectations, and that the first plane should roll off the assembly line in July 2007. Airbus is taking orders for the A350. All three programs hold promise for composite technology leaps that will expand other market applications.

Aviation/Aerospace

The airline industry estimates they will triple the number of passengers by 2020. Therefore, most of the airplanes in the future will be made of composites. They must be, in order to reduce weight, save fuel and lessen the impact of turbine exhaust gases on global warming. Saving money on fuel also offers the airlines a chance of actually making a profit.

Sports/Recreation

Mexico, Taiwan and China have garnered the lion's share of the production of tube-type components, such as golf shafts and tennis rackets in recent years. Other applications include oar and arrow shafts, fishing rods, bicycle frames and hockey sticks, including shafts and blades. If a new sports product reaches production, demand could increase, but modest growth is predicted until 2010. In 2006.Trek announced it was planning on making carbon fiber bikes more affordable to recreational cyclists by taking advantage of lower production costs in China. It must be remembered that these are highly competitive, trendy glamour markets requiring fast deliveries. These market segment characteristics helped lead to the fiber shortages of 1998.

Industrial

The industrial market segment, while very diverse in contrast to the aerospace market, is showing signs of really expanding, especially in wind energy and composite pressure vessels for CNG, LNG, and hydrogen. Construction, oilfield, and other energy-related applications, such as flywheels and composite cables for electric transmission and distribution, also offer significant opportunities. Glass fiber has traditionally been the dominant reinforcement for wind turbine blades, but for the larger blades (> 40m) used on turbines that are beginning to compete with traditional energy sources, carbon is seen as the key. Carbon fiber rebar grids are off and running in precast concrete for construction. Offshore oil applications, especially for risers and tethers, could also increase demand by millions of pounds per year putting a severe strain on supply.

Automotive

Carbon fiber use is advancing in automotive applications, especially in luxury performance vehicles with limited production runs, such as the BMW M6 and the Mercedes SLR McLaren. Some time in the future, most designs may use carbon fiber in a hybrid design with glass to provide added stiffness or alone where the added glamour value of using carbon may come into play. Similarly to some of the industrial markets mentioned above, future use of significant amounts of carbon fiber in serial automotive production, could also strain fiber supply. Goodyear is incorporating carbon fiber into tires. The outboard sidewall of a new performance tire is reinforced with a carbon fiber insert that provides stiffness for responsive handling and steering precision. The aftermarket for vehicles is a small but growing use - examples are carbon fiber fenders and helmets for motorcycles. However, it should not be assumed that advanced composites are the only materials being considered for advanced performance vehicles. There has been a lot of aggressive activity from both the aluminum and steel consortiums in response to what they see as a challenge to one of their traditional markets.